The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced an updated 2025 hurricane season analysis on Aug. 7 that maintains NOAA’s initial “above-normal” hurricane season prediction, according to forecasters in NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basic, which includes New Orleans, lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity typically between mid-August to mid-October. NOAA forecasters predict a 50% change of an “above-normal” season this year.
NOAA forecasts between 13 to 18 named storms. Storms are named once they have sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Of those named storms, five to nine are predicted to become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph.
These hurricanes will likely include two to five major hurricanes ranging from categories 3 to 5, with winds of at least 111 mph, according to forecasts.
The Gulf South has been historically vulnerable to hurricanes. Louisiana is often named the second greatest hurricane risk among the states, following Florida. Louisiana’s proximity to the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, low elevation, relatively flat topography and rapid wetland loss create ideal conditions for hurricanes.
Tulane University has been impacted by a number of hurricanes, namely Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Ida in 2021.
Most recently, Hurricane Francine in 2024 impacted Tulane’s daily operations, forcing classes online and the closure of many on-campus facilities.
The updated analysis was adjusted down from NOAA’s initial predictions in May after a relatively slow start to the hurricane season.
So far, the 2025 season has seen five named storms.
Tropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 24. Andrea developed roughly 1,200 miles away from the Azores and 1,400 miles away from the East Coast of the United States, posing no threat to land. Andrea dissipated shortly after its development.
Tropical Storms Barry, Chantal and Dexter followed as the next named storms of the season.
Dexter did not impact land, but Barry and Chantal made landfall in southeastern Mexico and South Carolina, respectively. The tropical moisture brought by Barry contributed to the deadly Texas Hill Country Flood on July 4. Chantal brought heavy rain that triggered flash floods throughout the Carolinas.
The major development this season was Hurricane Erin. Erin’s rapid intensification from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in just over 24 hours shocked meteorologists. While Erin never made landfall, it left flooding, strong winds and rip currents in its wake on the Jersey Shore as it moved away from the East Coast.
As hurricane season continues, students are encouraged to review their evacuation plans. For more information on hurricane preparedness, visit Tulane’s Office of Emergency Preparedness & Response.